Where will tensions on the Korean Peninsula go?

At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to rise. Where will the situation go?

The Korean Central News Agency reported on the 16th that the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea issued a decision on the 15th to abolish North and South Korea affairs organizations such as the Fatherland Unification Committee and Mount Kumgang International Tourism Bureau.

This action actually had early warning signals.

The number of joint exercises held by the United States, Japan and South Korea in 2023 has doubled from the previous year. Since the end of last year, tensions on the Korean peninsula have heated up, from announcing the suspension of the "September 19 Military Agreement" to North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un directly directing North Korea and South Korea to Relations are defined as "enemy-enemy relations," and the camp-based resistance on the Korean peninsula is approaching a critical point.

It's only been half a month since this year, and both parties are making frequent moves. The week-long South Korea-US New Year's Eve military exercise concluded on the 4th with all-round sea, land and air exercises. In Pocheon City, Gyeonggi Province, located near the military demarcation line between North and South Korea, the South Korean and US armed forces launched 110 tanks, including main battle tanks, armored vehicles, etc. Taiwan weapons and equipment. At the same time, the South Korean Navy mobilized a number of destroyers, frigates and missile boats to conduct naval gunfire and sea-clearing maneuvers in the waters surrounding the peninsula.

In response to a series of military drills by the South Korean army in the New Year, the Korean Central News Agency published an article on the 4th to severely criticize it, saying that the Yin Xiyue government continued to launch military provocations in 2023 and will continue to make provocative decisions in 2024. Next, it is likely to launch various military provocations on an unprecedented scale. There is a war conspiracy, so this year is "the year when conflict between South Korea and North Korea is most likely to occur." North Korea's "Rodong Sinmun" also published a comment, accusing South Korea of ​​"promoting a war atmosphere."

Subsequently, South Korea said that the North Korean army had been firing artillery shells near the northwest island at the northernmost tip of South Korea's western waters for three consecutive days starting from the 5th. In response to North Korea, the South Korean military troops stationed on the islands in northwestern South Korea conducted sea firing training on the afternoon of the 5th. Subsequently, North Korea also took action. South Korea said that North Korea fired artillery shells northwest of Yeonpyeong Island on the afternoon of the 6th, and the shells landed in the sea buffer zone north of the "Northern Limit Line" in the western sea.

However, the claim of North Korean artillery fire was denied by Kim Yo-jong, Vice Minister of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea. She said that the South Korean side misjudged and speculated on the movements of the North Korean army, and said that the North Korean army detonated explosives that simulated gunfire 60 times and was "watching the reaction of the (South Korean army)."

On January 10, the Korean Central News Agency stated that North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un stated that South Korea is North Korea’s “main enemy” when he inspected an important military factory in the country, and emphasized that the top priority in relations with South Korea is to strengthen national defense and self-defense capabilities. nuclear war deterrence.

On the 14th, the South Korean military stated that North Korea launched a medium- and long-range ballistic missile from the Pyongyang area into the eastern waters of the peninsula. This is North Korea's first test-fire of a medium- to long-range solid-fuel ballistic missile this year. It is not yet clear what type of missile this test was. The first test launch was in mid-December 2023, and the launcher was "Hwasong-18".

South Korea said that North Korea successfully tested a medium- and long-range solid-fuel ballistic missile on the afternoon of the 14th.

As North Korea tests ballistic missiles, the North Korean Foreign Minister's visit to Russia also attracts the attention of public opinion. According to news from the Korean Central News Agency on the 14th, at the invitation of Russia, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will visit Russia from January 15 to 17 and will discuss deepening North Korea-Russia relations with Lavrov. The Kremlin expressed the hope that the talks between the foreign ministers of Russia and North Korea will be substantial, meaningful and fruitful.

It is worth noting that on the day Choi Son-hui arrived in Russia, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit North Korea in the foreseeable future and that Russia plans to develop partnerships with North Korea in all fields.

All these have caused the United States, South Korea and other countries to cast wary eyes.

Last year, the top leader of North Korea carried out a train visit to the Russian Far East, focusing on inspecting the sea, land and air military facilities in the Russian Far East. At that time, the US and Western media reported intensively that Russia and North Korea might launch military cooperation. Later, the Russian Defense Minister Visits to North Korea and even the landing of mysterious Russian military planes in Pyongyang several times have aroused speculation and hype in the public opinion field in the United States and the West.

After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the United States and other Western countries accused North Korea of ​​providing weapons to Russia to support Russia's war against Ukraine, but both North Korea and Russia denied it.

In fact, the so-called military aid accusation is likely to become another fuse that detonates the situation on the peninsula. Because of the military game and direct intervention of major powers behind it, the risk of confrontation may be stronger and the risk factor is higher.

Especially now, the two sides on the peninsula lack certain communication channels. Since the land, sea and sea buffer zones used by North Korea and South Korea to avoid the escalation of the crisis no longer exist, the only channel left is the "United Nations Command" and North Korea's contact hotline in Panmunjom. The leaders of both countries require their frontline soldiers to immediately respond to emergencies, which makes the outside world more worried about the risk of miscalculation.